With Iran reaching an agreement on its nuclear programme, India is expected to be one of the major gainers.
A fall in crude oil price and Aramco's $75 billion annual dividend commitment may have delayed Saudi company picking a stake in Reliance Industries Ltd's oil-to-chemical unit (O2C), research firm Jefferies said. Richest Indian Mukesh Ambani had in August 2019 announced talks for the sale of a 20 per cent stake in the O2C business, which comprises its twin oil refineries at Jamnagar in Gujarat and petrochemical assets, to the world's largest oil exporter. The deal was to conclude by March 2020 but has been delayed for reasons not disclosed by either company.
Lower crude oil costs and higher marketing margins are expected to raise the fortunes of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), while city gas distribution (CGD) companies could also benefit from lower spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, in a break from the past, growth trends are expected to diverge for various segments within the broad energy sector. Analysts expect the earnings from gas production to go down for upstream national oil and gas companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) due to the introduction of the new domestic gas pricing regime on April 1. After showing steep losses over the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), the marketing margins of OMCs have steadily recovered in four months.
OPEC, which has oil reserves that constitute 80 percent of the total global reserves, is unwilling to increase output to bring down oil prices. This makes OPEC too responsible for the rising oil prices, apart from the weak dollar. OPEC has said that world oil demand this year is forecast to grow by 1.2 million barrels daily to an average of 87 million barrels per day. As OPEC's output remains insufficient to cover rising demand from Asian region, oil prices will tend to rise.
Leading industrialist, Mukesh Ambani,on Friday said the trend of rising energy prices is a matter of great concern and that it could rise further to three-digits going forward.
The government on Friday slapped an export tax on petrol, diesel and jet fuel (ATF) while also joining nations like the UK in imposing a windfall tax on crude oil produced locally. A Rs 6 per litre tax on export of petrol and ATF and Rs 13 per litre tax on export of diesel is effective from July 1, finance ministry notifications showed. Additionally, a Rs 23,250 per tonne tax was levied on crude oil produced domestically.
India said it is broad-basing and diversifying sourcing of petroleum product to meet market conditions.
India plans to release about 5 million barrels of crude oil from its emergency stockpile in tandem with the US, Japan and other major economies to cool prices, a top government official said on Tuesday. India stores about 38 million barrels of crude oil in underground caverns at three locations on the east and west coast. Of this, about 5 million barrels will be released, starting as early as 7-10 days, the official, who wished not to be named said.
While investors would focus on the results and guidance for the third quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26) in the normal course of business, the US-Israeli attack on Iran and the latter's retaliation at Gulf allies of the US has forced them to weigh the consequences of the event.
India's crude oil imports from Russia strengthened in the first half of October, reversing a three-month slide in arrivals seen during July-September as refineries were back on full stream to meet festive demand, according to ship tracking data.
Stock investors will track the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Brent crude oil prices, inflation data and the US Fed interest rate decision for further cues this week, analysts said. Tariff-related news would also dictate trends in the equity market, experts noted.
Rising crude oil prices along with hardening interest rates in the domestic market have taken a toll on India Inc's growth outlook in the first quarter of the current fiscal.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India this week aims to secure energy supplies, stabilise defence deliveries and ensure bilateral trade continues smoothly despite strong Western sanctions, GTRI said on Tuesday.
However, copious oil supplies amid growing global output and slowing Chinese oil consumption will put India in a better bargaining position with Gulf suppliers.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
India is deeply concerned over the spike in the price of oil due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and it is "breaking our back," External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said. Addressing a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken after holding bilateral talks, Jaishankar on Tuesday said there is a very deep concern among developing countries about how their energy needs are addressed. Speaking about the Ukraine war, he said: "We have taken the position privately, publicly, confidentially and consistently that this conflict is not in anybody's interest."
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have updated their outlook for the Indian markets, and they now expect the Sensex to hit the 107,000 mark by December 2026 in a bull-case scenario, translating into an upside of 26 per cent from current levels.
Communist Party India on Thursday asked the government and the public sector oil companies to share the burden of the surge in crude oil prices and expressed the desire to be consulted before any final decision on fuel pricing is taken.
The stubbornly high global crude oil prices are opening up a can of worms to heightened inflation risks and likely to disrupt government's fiscal maths along with deteriorating global financial conditions.
Experts feel oil prices will remain volatile with an upward bias.
If crude oil prices stay at current levels, the Indian government would not be required to issue additional oil bonds to the four state-run oil marketing companies in the current financial year, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Monday. Oil retailers, however, are unlikely to cut prices of petroleum products in response to falling crude prices unless private retailers like Essar Oil and Reliance Industries Ltd restart operations and offer a lower price.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
During a visit to the UK, former US President Donald Trump reiterated his claim of intervening to resolve a conflict between India and Pakistan, linking it to trade negotiations. He also discussed tariffs on India for buying Russian oil and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Tyre stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, with average returns exceeding 45 per cent. Except for Apollo Tyres, which has seen a slight correction in the last month and a half, limiting its gains to 16 per cent, listed peers such as MRF, CEAT Tyres (formerly Cavi Elettrici e Affini Torino), and JK Tyre & Industries have delivered returns exceeding 30 per cent during this period. Production-related constraints and sluggish demand in Europe, where sales are expected to remain flat, coupled with high valuations, have contributed to Apollo Tyres' underperformance. The tyre sector's gains can be attributed to robust growth trends driven by the replacement market, which constitutes more than two-thirds of sales.
Asian Paints reported a good performance for the second quarter (July-September) of 2025-26 (Q2FY26), with some help from base effects, despite strong competition and extended monsoon. Volume grew in low double digits in the key domestic decorative paints, and value in that segment grew by 6 per cent. Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) grew 21 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), and PAT (profit after tax) grew 14 per cent. Asian Paints also defended market share better after several quarters where it had lost ground to Birla Opus.
India, the world's third-largest energy consumer and importer, on Wednesday warned of high oil prices hurting the nascent and fragile global economic recovery and floated an idea of long-term supply contracts that provide predictable and stable pricing. Speaking at the India Energy Forum by CERAWeek, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said there was a mismatch between demand for oil and the supplies producers such as OPEC+ were making and there was a case for raising the production. The world, he said, needs "predictable, stable and affordable" prices for it to recover back to pre-pandemic levels.
'Reliance on crude oil is still very high. Globally, natural gas is 25 per cent of the energy basket. In India, it has fallen to 6.5 per cent, from 11 per cent in 2014.'
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Axis Bank and Infosys were among the major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Asian Paints emerged as the laggards from the pack.
The Indian basket represents the price of Oman and Dubai sour grade crude.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
With India making it clear that the US doesn't have enough spare capacity for crude oil, Washington, DC, now wants India to sign fixed-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with American producers, multiple sources in the know said.
Modi made a strong case for a partnership between the producers and consumers in the oil market as it exists in other markets.
There is positive correlation between crude oil prices and Indian equities and investors can expect more upside after the recent rally in Brent crude price.
'Indian refiners can operate without Russian crude from a technical standpoint, but the shift would involve major economic and strategic trade-offs'
The domestic stock market will continue to monitor the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on global supplies besides prices of crude oil this week, analysts said. Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would also drive investors' sentiment during the week.
The US government, under President Trump, justifies the intervention as a security necessity rather than a resource grab. The primary official reasons include: narco-terrorism charges, national security and migration crisis.
Government's fuel subsidy estimate was based on crude oil at $70.
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